A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone

Monica Billio, Jacques Anas, Laurent Ferrara and Marco Lo Duca
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Jacques Anas: Coe Rexecode, Paris

No 2007_33, Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari"

Abstract: We propose a dating process for the business and growth Euro-zone cycles. This process is a result of a non parametric algorithm and diverse criteria assessment (duration, deepness, diffusion, synchronisation), as well as of �expert judgments� based on a combination of the following principles: a comparison of direct and indirect dating; an objective of coherence between growth cycle and business cycle turning points (ABCD approach); an objective of coherence between industrial and GDP cycles. As a complement to the traditional direct approach based on the study of Euro-zone aggregates, the main contribution of this paper is to measure the degree of diffusion and synchronisation of the cycles among the countries.

Keywords: Economic cycles; Turning point; Chronology; Non parametric approach; Euro-zone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C50 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51
Date: 2007
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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