Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economic data
Monica Billio,
Roberto Casarin,
Francesco Ravazzolo and
Herman van Dijk
No 2012_16, Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari"
Abstract:
Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying combination strategies are introduced. In particular, a weight dynamics driven by the past performance of the predictive densities is considered and the use of learning mechanisms. The approach is assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures for evaluating density forecasts of US macroeconomic time series and of surveys of stock market prices.
Keywords: Density Forecast Combination; Survey Forecast; Bayesian Filtering; Sequential Monte Carlo. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C15 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-for and nep-ore
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
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Related works:
Working Paper: Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data (2011) 
Working Paper: Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data (2010) 
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ven:wpaper:2012_16
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