A Negative Binomial model for the donations count in Fundraising Management

Luca Barzanti and Martina Nardon ()
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Luca Barzanti: University of Bologna
Martina Nardon: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

No 2025: 28, Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari"

Abstract: Forecasting expected gifts is a key task in Fundraising Management. In this study, we propose modeling a gift as an individual risk that can be analyzed from multiple perspectives: the occurrence, frequency, and timing of donations, as well as their monetary amounts. We focus specifically on modeling the number of donations as a Poisson random variable whose intensity parameter depends on individual donor characteristics. By introducing a Gamma-distributed heterogeneity factor, a Negative Binomial model arises as a natural extension of the starting framework. This approach enables the estimation of both the expected number of donations and the probability of a gift through Negative Binomial regression. We illustrate the methodology with an empirical application.

Keywords: Fundraising Management; Expected Gift; Poisson Regression; Negative Binomial Regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 D64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2025
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