Seasonality in tourist flows: Decomposing and testing changes in seasonal concentration

Luigi Grossi and Mauro Mussini ()
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Mauro Mussini: Department of Economics (University of Verona)

No 16/2019, Working Papers from University of Verona, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper, we show that the changes in the timing and magnitude of seasonality in tourist flows can be measured by decomposing the change in the Gini index, a widely used measure of seasonal concentration, into two components. One of them tracks the changes in the timing of fluctuations, examining the extent to which the seasonal pattern is stable and the second captures the changes in the magnitude of seasonal fluctuations. To assess whether changes in the seasonal pattern and magnitude are significant, a technique for testing statistical hypotheses concerning the two components is developed. The decomposition and statistical tests are used to examine changes in the seasonal concentration of tourist arrivals in six tourist destinations in the Veneto region, one of the most important regions in Italy and Europe for tourism, over the decade from 2006 to 2016. Our analysis shows that the magnitude of seasonality significantly decreased in some destinations characterized by diversified tourist products, such as Euganean spas and Lake Garda. The seasonal pattern remained substantially stable for all destinations except Venice, where a non-negligible shift in the seasonal pattern occurred. The policy implications are discussed.

Keywords: concentration indices; Gini index decomposition; tourism seasonality; tourism time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C46 C63 L83 Z32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40
Date: 2019-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tur and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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