No, Virginia, There Isn't a Santa Claus (For Most Countries' Growth Cycles)

David Giles

No 403, Econometrics Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Victoria

Abstract: We consider the seasonal distribution of turning points in the post-war growth cycles of sixteen economies. Using nonparametric tests for distributions on the circle, we cannot reject the hypothesis of a uniform distribution for the turning points for most of the countries. In the case of troughs in the cycle, uniformity is supported for eleven countries, notwithstanding the unusually large number of December or January troughs. This provides evidence against a possible 'Santa Claus effect' in the growth cycle.

Keywords: Business cycle; Growth cycle; seasonality; Kuiper test; Watson test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C14 C16 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2004-04-16
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vic:vicewp:0403

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