 On the momentum of pseudostable populationsGustav Feichtinger, Roland Rau and Andreas J. Nov?k No 2301, VID Working Papers from Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna Abstract: In a pathbreaking paper Keyfitz (1971) calculated the demographic momentum, i .e. the amount of further population growth if an immediate reduction of fertility to bare replacement would occur. While he assumes a stable initial population, our research aims to extend it to so-called pseudostable populations where fertility declines at a constant rate while mortality remains fixed. We were able to analytically obtain interesting insights into the momentum of growth of such populations. Comparing theoretical results in a pseudostable setting with the projections according to the component method showed a fit that was un-expectedly remarkably good. A peculiar effect of pseudostability is the monotonous decline of the momentum over time. Starting from a certain fixed l evel in the remote past, the momentum converges to zero for an infinite time horizon. Interestingly enough, there is a time where there is neither a positive nor a negative momentum. To put it numerically, a remarkable asymmetry in the momentum is revealed. While an immediate fertility change may lead to a maximal increase of the population by a factor between 2 and 3, the maximal decrease runs up to 100%. Keywords: Pseudostable; populations (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vid:wpaper:2301 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in VID Working Papers from Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna |
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