Open windows of Europe

Caroline A. Rodenburg, Barry Ubbels and Peter Nijkamp
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Caroline A. Rodenburg: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics

No 27, Serie Research Memoranda from VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics

Abstract: The future of the transport sector is fraught with uncertainties, as the system is influenced by many factors. The aim of this paper is to offer insight into the future of this sector, seen from a European perspective, by applying a scenario approach and designing four possible paths of development. These future developments are presented here by a sketch of four contrasting European images based on the results of earlier research. The outcome for the transport sector, expressed in volumes for both passenger and freight, are qualitatively described and based on expected developments of several relevant indicators. Subsequently, the results are presented in terms of CO2 emissions, with major focus on the EU. With these results in mind, it is interesting to confront the EU’s objectives and current policies. Creating sustainable mobility appeared to be a key element in EU transport policy. Nevertheless, the achievement of sustainable mobility based on the results presented in this paper may seem problematic and will face several hurdles. But policy changes and (unexpected) technology developments may offer new possibilities to achieve a steadier development of the transport sector.

JEL-codes: F29 L91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vua:wpaper:2000-27

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