To leave or not to leave? Climate change, exit, and voice on a Pacific Island

Ilan Noy

No 19553, Working Paper Series from Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance

Abstract: Observers repeatedly predict that climate change will lead and is already causing massive migration with very large numbers of people forced to leave their homes in cataclysmic waves of climate refugees. Yet, most of the empirical research on the contemporary link between climate change and migration fails to find much evidence of this migration. As climate change has been progressively intensifying for decades, should we not expect these migrations to already be happening? Here, we focus on Tuvalu, a small atoll nation in the South Pacific, that in many respects can serve as the Canary-in-the-Mine for climate change research. If migration driven by climate change is not happening today, Tuvalu may explain why. One plausible reason for this lack of migration is the desire by Tuvaluans to Voice. ‘Voicing’, a concept borrowed from Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, is the advocacy expressing one’s wish for change. We present evidence that the atoll nations have decided that their best policy at this point in time is to stay and Voice. If it is not unique to the Pacific atolls, this present choice to prefer Voice to Exit may explain why the evidence on climate-induced migration is so fragile. Tuvalu may be using Voice to attempt to avert dire outcomes, or to strengthen its bargaining position for the inevitable discussions about compensation. Still, the biggest risk may be that the equilibrium mix between Voice and Exit is unstable and that the transition from one strategy to the other may be abrupt—probably in response to a catastrophic natural disaster. In the long-term, sudden and unplanned displacement are always less successful, so advance planning is necessary now, including the financing of alternatives from funding through the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage. Keynote Paper: Migration and Climate Change CESifo Workshop – Venice 2016

Keywords: Climate change; Migration; Tuvalu; South Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/19553

Related works:
Journal Article: To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island (2017)
Working Paper: To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:19553

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance Alice Fong, Administrator, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria Business School, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600 Wellington, New Zealand. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Library Technology Services ().