Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand
Michael Cameron ()
Working Papers in Economics from University of Waikato
This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the future spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, with a focus on the effects of climate variables on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a cohort-component population projection model to evaluate the effect of different climate change scenarios on regional populations. Three climate variables are found to have statistically significant associations with internal migration: (1) mean sea level pressure in the destination; (2) surface radiation in the origin; and (3) wind speed at ten metres at the destination. Including these variables in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level.
Keywords: climate change; internal migration; gravity model; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 Q54 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-geo and nep-mig
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wai:econwp:17/03
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