The Changing Effect of Energy and Rice Prices and Remittances on Overall Inflation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Philippines

Harold Glenn Valera (), Mark Holmes () and Vic Delloro

Working Papers in Economics from University of Waikato

Abstract: In this paper, we address the challenge of using aggregate data to study the effects of fuel and rice prices on overall inflation in emerging markets. Our quantile regression analysis using the Philippines' province-level monthly data from 1996 to 2024 finds a strong impact during periods of higher inflation. Indeed, this impact is verified in Indonesia, Thailand, and India. We also find that inflation targeting and rice tariffication reduce such an impact and that high-poverty and rice-deficit areas exhibit a higher fall in rice inflation effect post-tariffication. In addition, the impact of remittances on Philippine inflation is nonlinear, while it is asymmetric for the other three countries.

Keywords: CPI inflation; energy and rice prices; remittances; quantile regression; panel data; emerging markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2025-05-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon and nep-sea
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