Climate Change and Outdoor Jobs: The Rise of Adult Male Dropouts

Masahiro Yoshida ()
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Masahiro Yoshida: Department of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo

No 2508, Working Papers from Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics

Abstract: Male labor force participation rates (LFPR) in developed economies have been declining since the 1970s. This paper argues that modern climate change has fueled dropouts of adult males by eroding the traditional advantage of working outdoors. Using exposure to climate change across US commuting zones constructed from granular daily weather records for nearly half a century, I find that extreme temperature days hurt the LFPR of prime-age males. In the new century, climate change accounts for approximately 10-15 percent of the nationwide decline in LFPR. I find that outdoor jobs—prevalent across sectors and prominent in disadvantaged regions—are likely hotbeds of dropout. Disability accounts for a substantial proportion of climate-induced dropouts, but the majority of these are likely due to preference; the decline in LFPR has been catalyzed by the spread of housing amenities (e.g., air conditioning and cable TV) and access to affluent family backgrounds. Overall, the results suggest that climate change exacerbates socioeconomic inequality.

Keywords: Climate change; Male labor force participation; Outdoor jobs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J21 J22 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 98 pages
Date: 2025-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-his and nep-lma
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