Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area

Marcin Bielecki, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Marcin Kolasa

No 2020-24, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: We investigate the impact of demographics on the natural rate of interest (NRI) in the euro area, with a particular focus on the role played by economic openness, migrations and pension system design. To this end, we construct a life-cycle model and calibrate it to match the life-cycle profiles from HFCS data. We show that population aging contributes significantly to the decline in the NRI, explaining about two-thirds of its secular decline between 1985 and 2030. Openness to international capital flows has not been important in driving the EA real interest rate so far, but will become a significant factor preventing its further decline in the coming decades, when aging in Europe accelerates relative to the rest of the world. Of two possible pension reforms, only an increase in the retirement age can revert the downward trend on the equilibrium interest rate while a fall in the replacement rate would make its fall even deeper. The demographic pressure on the Eurozone NRI can be alleviated by increased immigration, but only to a small extent and with a substantial lag.

Keywords: population aging; natural interest rate; life-cycle models; pension systems; migrations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dge, nep-eec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/5754/ First version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area (2020)
Working Paper: Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2020-24

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