Is smooth Energiewende possible? Improving the performance of climate policies in Germany by optimizing the risk of electricity delivery

Jakub Bandurski (), Eliza Hałatek (), Adam Łaziński () and Michał Künstler ()
Additional contact information
Jakub Bandurski: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Eliza Hałatek: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Adam Łaziński: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Michał Künstler: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences

No 2025-30, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: The Energiewende is a deep-rooted notion in the German economy. The main goal is to achieve climate neutrality by transitioning to renewable energy sources. However, the feasibility of this transition is partially hindered by power grid congestion, which undermines system efficiency and leads to both economic and environmental costs. We address this issue by making a prediction of the likelihood of congestion occurrence within the German TenneT DE electricity network in the years 2020-2023. We propose a twofold approach offering a combination of advanced econometric models and state-of-the-art machine learning methods. We offer separate solutions for up congestion when additional energy needs to be pushed to the network as well as down congestion when energy needs to be pulled away from the network. Analyzing the CatBoost with XAI, we identify factors that play a significant role in driving redispatch events within the German electricity network.

Keywords: energiewende; econometrics; machine learning; climate policy; catboost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C53 Q47 Q48 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/6459/0 First version, 2025 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-30

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jacek Rapacz ().