Climate change narratives and first births in the UK

Ewa Weychert (), Daniele Vignoli, Anna Matysiak and Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska
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Ewa Weychert: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Daniele Vignoli: University of Florence, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti” (DiSIA)
Anna Matysiak: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics

No 2026-11, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: This study investigates how climate news exposure relates to first-birth outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing on theories of imagined futures, individualized political engagement, and eco-anxiety, we examine whether and how exposure to climate-related media coverage is related to fertility behavior. We construct a novel index of climate news coverage using text mining and link it to individual-level longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society survey. Results show that high exposure to climate news is associated with a lower probability of first birth, but only among individuals who express strong pro-environmental attitudes. In contrast, political identity and perceived long-term climate risk do not significantly moderate this relationship. These findings suggest that climate news coverage, which we use as a proxy for climate change narratives, is associated with fertility in a non-uniform way, shaped by moral and emotional mechanisms linked to current environmental concern. This study highlights the role of media-driven imaginaries in shaping life course decisions and contributes new evidence on the demographic implications of climate change discourse.

Keywords: climate change; fertility outcomes; text mining (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 J13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-11

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