What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Bartosz Jusypenko ()
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Bartosz Jusypenko: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences

No 2026-27, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respondents to consider potential heritage loss affects stated willingness to pay (WTP) for renovation of a building and whether the contribution of information about adaptive reuse depends on whether such loss enters the valuation decision. A contingent valuation survey of 452 adult residents living near Pückler Palace, a deteriorating historic building in Poland, used a 2 × 2 randomized design combining a loss-consideration prompt with information about a genuine proposal to adapt the renovated palace as the new premises of the Museum of Ceramics. WTP was elicited as the maximum mandatory one-off levy respondents would support within an advisory-referendum framework. Among respondents not assigned to the loss-prompt treatment, a post-valuation question identified spontaneous consideration of heritage loss. Two-part models separated the probability of positive WTP from the amount stated among positive responses. Respondents assigned to the loss-prompt treatment had approximately twice the odds of reporting positive WTP and stated 61% higher amounts among positive responses. Among unprompted respondents, spontaneous loss consideration—reported by 54%—was associated with 92% higher positive WTP. Reuse information appeared to contribute more when heritage loss was not otherwise considered. The findings show that common information about an asset’s current condition need not produce a common understanding of its expected future without the proposed intervention. Stated preference surveys should therefore specify this trajectory with sufficient clarity and credibility that respondents are evaluating a common underlying policy change.

Keywords: cultural heritage; historic preservation; adaptive reuse; contingent valuation; stated preferences; prospect of loss (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 H43 Q51 Z18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2026
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