Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Anna Kurowska, Magdalena Grabowska, Maciej Świtała and Beata Osiewalska
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Anna Kurowska: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam)
Maciej Świtała: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Beata Osiewalska: University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam)

No 2026-32, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), we apply theory-guided machine learning to evaluate a broad set of individual, employment, partnership, and family characteristics. Because short-term fertility intentions prove most predictive of childbearing, we model both actual births and firm positive intentions using random forest. The pandemic-trained model retained strong post-pandemic predictive performance (AUC-ROC = 0.86), demonstrating that pandemic-era drivers remain informative. Childbearing and intentions shared 16 of their top 20 predictors, highlighting common relational, demographic, and work–family factors. Relationship satisfaction, work–life balance, and domestic work division were particularly prominent, whereas prolonged school and childcare closures lowered predicted probabilities for both outcomes among parents. Ultimately, post-pandemic fertility dynamics reflect persistent constraints embedded in everyday family and working lives.

Keywords: childbearing; fertility intentions; COVID-19 pandemic; machine learning; relationship satisfaction; childcare closures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 J12 J13 J22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2026
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