Technological Change, Labour Markets and Family Behaviours in Sweden

Anna Matysiak (), Linus Andersson and Wojciech Hardy
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Anna Matysiak: Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
Linus Andersson: Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University

No 2026-5, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: This study examines whether long-term structural labour market change, driven by industrial robotization, has influenced family formation and union stability in Sweden. Linking Swedish population register data (1994–2017) with sector-level measures of robot penetration, we analyse transitions into first marriage, first, second, and third births, and divorce. We distinguish between current exposure to robotization among employed workers and residual exposure among individuals who exited employment in robotizing sectors. Event-history models are complemented by an instrumental-variable approach that exploits cross-national variation in robot adoption to strengthen causal interpretation. On average, we find only weak associations between robotization and family transitions. However, substantial heterogeneity emerges by educational attainment. Among low- and medium-educated women and men, higher exposure to automation is linked to lower birth risks, weaker marriage formation, and higher divorce risks. In contrast, highly educated individuals experience neutral or positive associations between automation and family formation, alongside greater union stability. We conclude that the aggregate contribution of structural labour market change caused by industrial automation to Sweden’s post-recession fertility decline appears limited, automation contributes to widening educational disparities in family trajectories and reinforces cumulative disadvantage across labour market and family domains.

Keywords: labour market; technology; industrial robots; family; fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 J31 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-eur, nep-lma and nep-tid
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https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/6998/0 First version, 2026 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-5

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