The impact of stochastic extraction cost on the value of an exhaustible resource: An application to the Alberta oil sands

Abdullah Almansour and Margaret Insley
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Abdullah Almansour: Department of Finance and Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

No 1303, Working Papers from University of Waterloo, Department of Economics

Abstract: The optimal management of a non-renewable resource extraction project is studied when input and output prices follow correlated stochastic processes. The decision problem is specified by two Bellman equations describing the project when it is currently operating or mothballed. Solutions are determined numerically using the Least Squares Monte Carlo methodology. The analysis is applied to an oil sands project which uses natural gas during extracting and upgrading. The paper takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas prices and proposes two price models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two while the other has no such link. Incorporating a long-run relationship between oil and natural gas prices has a significant effect on the value of the project and its optimal operation and reduces the sensitivity of the project to the natural gas price process.

JEL-codes: C61 C63 Q30 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2013-06, Revised 2013-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-ore and nep-ppm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands (2016)
Journal Article: The Impact of Stochastic Extraction Cost on the Value of an Exhaustible Resource: An Application to the Alberta Oil Sands (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wat:wpaper:1303

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