Estimating a trend in the national poverty rate 2012-2021 in Madagascar

Nobuo Yoshida, Francis Mulangu, Ana Maria Oviedo, Haoyu Wu, Tomoyuki Sho, Danielle Aron and Olive Umuhire Nsababera

No 48, Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note Series from The World Bank

Abstract: The standard global poverty estimation method—relying on household survey data and CPI-based inflation—suggests a sharp decline in Madagascar’s international poverty rate (measured at $3 per day in PPP terms) between 2012 and 2021. This paper, however, applies a survey-to-survey imputation method—SWIFT (Survey of Wellbeing via Instant and Frequent Tracking)—to show that official CPI estimates significantly understate actual inflation. Once corrected, the data reveals poverty stagnation rather than decline, aligning more closely with other socio-economic indicators. The analysis also extends the poverty series back to 2001, uncovering a trajectory of volatility and stagnation, in contrast to the steady improvement implied by standard methods. While survey-to-survey imputation has been used to restore comparability of poverty trends, this study is the first to employ the approach for correcting inflation estimates.

Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2025-09
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