An Exploration of Climate-Related Financial Risks for Credit Guarantee Schemes in Europe

Pietro Calice and Jan Reinders

No 10232, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper assesses the vulnerability of credit guarantee schemes to the physical and transition risks related to climate change. Based on unique sectoral and spatial data from 29 European credit guarantee schemes linked to a range of vulnerability metrics, the paper identifies guarantees-at-risk, builds a transition risk score to rank sectors at risk, and conducts a stylized stress test to assess potential financial losses that credit guarantee schemes could incur under adverse climate-related scenarios. The results show that about one-third of credit guarantee schemes’ guarantee portfolios is toward sectors that have high exposure to a disorderly energy transition. European credit guarantee schemes are also exposed to a broad range of climate-related physical risks, especially wildfires, coastal floods, and river floods, with 24–31 percent of outstanding guarantees toward sectors that have elevated exposure to climate change and weather variability. Finally, for transition and physical risk scenarios, the annual expected loss on the guarantee portfolio could increase by EUR 181 million and EUR 128 million, respectively. The results suggest that credit guarantee schemes could start integrating climate-related financial risks into their risk management frameworks.

Date: 2022-11-16
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