Stuck in a Conflict Trap: The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War

Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon, Vincent Remi Nossek and Diderot Guy D Estaing Sandjong Tomi

No 10624, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper uses the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the civil war in the Central African Republic on the main socioeconomic indicators. Based on a donor pool of low-income countries, the paper builds a synthetic counterfactual to evaluate the magnitude of the socioeconomic impacts of the civil war. The results indicate that the civil war led to a significant drop in gross domestic product per capita (41.6 percent), nighttime light intensity (33.8 percent), industrial production (34.1 percent), manufacturing value added (33.7 percent), and the human asset index (20.2 percent), from 2013, which is considered as the starting point of the ongoing political and civil crisis.

Date: 2023-12-04
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