Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation and Public Debt Sustainability in Small Island Developing States

Martin Brownbridge and Roy S. Canagarajah

No 10787, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are a group of 39 United Nations (UN) member states and 18 dependent territories mostly located in the Caribbean and Oceania. They are among the most vulnerable countries to losses and damages from climate change globally, and they are especially exposed to tropical cyclones and sea level rise. This paper evaluates the climate change-related vulnerabilities of the SIDS. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), to examine the magnitude of damages incurred over the last three decades and conducts an event study analysis to examine the fiscal impacts of large tropical cyclone disasters in the last decade. SIDS need to invest substantial resources over the long term for climate change adaption. The paper reviews the limited studies that have been conducted so far, on the potential long-term costs of effective adaptation investment programs. Using the most recent Debt Sustainability Analyses of SIDS, the paper discusses the challenges countries with high public debt levels face and whether a general program of debt relief might be a feasible way to fund the adaptation investment requirements of SIDS. Finally, the paper discusses the type of assistance that SIDS need to strengthen their resilience to climate change in a cost-effective manner, and the role development partners can play in supporting climate-resilient development.

Date: 2024-06-03
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