Growing Vulnerability: What Happened to Europe’s Middle Class in the Course of a Decade ?

Maurizio Bussolo, Jonathan George Karver, Michael Lokshin, Luis-Felipe Lopez-Calva and Ivan Torre

No 11047, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper uses a vulnerability-based approach to analyze the evolution of the middle class in Europe between 2005–08 and 2015–18. The analysis reveals that, on average, the income level needed to ensure a low probability of falling into poverty—also understood as the vulnerability threshold—increased between those periods in real terms. This increase correlates with decreases in the size of the middle class in many European countries. In parallel, the composition of the middle class changed, with an increased share of tertiary-educated household heads and a larger share of household heads with managerial and professional occupations. Lastly, the households that were not poor, but not yet middle class, were further from becoming middle class in the second period than in the first period.

Date: 2025-01-27
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