Unpacking the Disaster-FCV Nexus: Household Economic Impacts of Conflict and Floods in Nigeria

Karima Ben Bih, Bramka Arga Jafino, Chloe Genevieve Helene Desjonqueres and Solene Masson

No 11167, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of conflicts on flood-affected households in Nigeria, utilizing a balanced panel dataset derived from the Living Standards Measurement Survey data collected in 2012, 2015, and 2018, and geo-spatial conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The analysis employs difference-in-difference regressions to examine whether conflicts have a measurable effect on households and whether this effect is intensified when considering flood exposure. The study focuses on households' consumption expenditure outcomes, comparing conflict-affected and non-conflict-affected households, and further narrows down to flood-affected households. The results indicate that conflict-affected households experience lower consumption expenditure compared to non-conflict-affected households, with the adverse effects being significantly more pronounced for those also affected by floods. The study also investigates these effects on households’ income, albeit with a smaller sample. Similar findings, although less robust, were noted when analyzing income trends. The findings underscore the compounded vulnerabilities faced by households in conflict and flood-prone areas, highlighting the need for integrated policy interventions to address the compounded impacts of these shocks.

Date: 2025-07-08
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