Fast Action for Floods: RCT Evidence on Forecast-based Cash Transfers from Bangladesh and Nepal

Nidhila Adusumalli, Odbayar Batmunkh, Paul J. Christian, Felipe Dunsch, Jonas Heirman, Erin Kelley, Florence Kondylis, Gregory Lane, Kriti Malhotra and Jennifer Waidler

No 11244, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: As increasingly frequent extreme weather events disrupt lives, institutions are turning to early-warning systems and advance preparation to accelerate aid delivery. A randomized controlled trial in Bangladesh and Nepal tested whether providing cash within days of a flood leads to greater benefits than delivering the same assistance months later—or if it simply shifts the timing of benefits without improving overall welfare. The results suggest that timely cash assistance leads to overall gains in food security and psychosocial well-being. This evidence supports efforts to forecast crises and release disaster relief quickly.

Date: 2025-10-29
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