Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data to Map Multidimensional Vulnerability in the Central African Republic

Vincent Remi Nossek, Walker Kosmidou-Bradley, Frédéric Mortier, Bastien Chevillé and Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon

No 11309, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: In fragile states such as the Central African Republic, where conflict and institutional fragility severely constrain traditional data collection, mapping multidimensional vulnerability and potential deprivation poses a significant challenge for designing targeted interventions. This paper presents an innovative geospatial dashboard that harnesses alternative data sources—including nighttime light intensity, other relevant satellite imagery, geocoded infrastructure inventories, and critical event records. It uses the dashboard to develop high-resolution indices (at a 5×5-kilometer scale) of economic capacity, access to essential services (education, health, and water), flood exposure, and lethal conflict risks. By employing a Bayesian state-space model to disaggregate sectoral gross domestic product and friction-based accessibility metrics, the analysis uncovers pronounced spatial disparities. Economic activity remains concentrated in urban hubs such as Bangui, while rural areas suffer from compounded vulnerabilities, including limited economic opportunities and poor service access. Cross-validation with the 2021 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey confirms the predictive validity of these indices for household wealth, with economic and service indicators positively correlated with welfare outcomes. Conversely, exposure to lethal conflict appears paradoxically associated with higher-value targets, potentially reflecting rent-seeking dynamics. These tools enhance the precision of policy targeting in data-scarce environments, providing scalable and actionable insights for poverty alleviation in conflict-affected, low-income countries.

Date: 2026-02-11
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