Weather Shocks and Unintended Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Musa Hasen Ahmed, Halefom Yigzaw Nigus, Hiwot Mekonnen Mesfin and Gebrelibanos Gebremariam

No 11364, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of drought shocks on unintended pregnancies across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results show that drought exposure increases the likelihood of unintended pregnancy by one to two percentage points (about 3 to 6 percent), depending on the specification. The analysis further finds that children born from unintended pregnancies are less likely to receive antenatal care, less likely to be delivered in health facilities, and more vulnerable to illness. The findings also show that unintended pregnancies have implications for women’s labor market outcomes. Overall, the findings indicate that drought shocks intensify women’s economic and reproductive vulnerabilities. Given the wide-ranging consequences of unintended births for both mothers and children, the results high-light the importance of integrating reproductive health interventions into climate adaptation policies.

Date: 2026-04-27
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