Are the Poor More Exposed to Climate Hazards in Latin America?

Ben James Brunckhorst, Miki Khanh Doan, Alejandro De la Fuente, Samuel Freije-Rodriguez, Catalina García and Minh Cong Nguyen

No 11389, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper addresses two main questions. First, what proportion of people are exposed to climate hazards in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially among the poor versus the nonpoor? Second, do certain areas—hotspots—have high rates of bothhazard exposure and poverty that require targeted policy? Using poverty maps and georeferenced climate hazard data, three innovations are introduced: five climate hazards are analyzed (droughts, hurricanes, heatwaves, floods, and landslides); official poverty data at administrative level 2 are used, instead of only administrative level 1; and an interpolation method estimates poverty-plus-exposure rates across countries with varying data sources. The estimates indicate that 36.9 percent of the population is exposed to at least one of the five climate hazards under consideration. Considering the population in poverty only, the percentage is higher, 44.6 percent, whereas the exposure rate for the nonpoor is 34.0 percent. Some areas experience high exposure to climate hazards and high poverty rates. These hotspots include about 10 percent of the region’s population. These areas are in the Brazilian northeast; the upper-Amazon region of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil; the Chaco region of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay; the islands of the Caribbean; the western coast of the Gulf of California; and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Date: 2026-05-20
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