The China Syndrome: A Misdiagnosis ?

Alessandro Barattieri and Aaditya Mattoo

No 11470, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: China’s growing dominance in manufacturing exports is attracting widespread attention. However, existing explanations of China’s export exceptionalism and its consequences for developing countries suffer from three shortcomings. First, attributing China’s large and increasing share in manufacturing exports primarily to its industrial policy obscures more fundamental factors: the scale of its economy, the diversity of its provincial endowments, and the pace of its automation. Second, focusing on the low-skilled export dimension of China’s economic expansion overlooks its positive impact on growth and its heterogeneous effects on structural transformation in developing countries. Finally, blaming foreign industrial policies distracts attention from the often more damaging trade and investment restrictions imposed by developing countries themselves, many of which could be reformed unilaterally.

Date: 2026-09-29
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