Structural changes in metals consumption
Boum-Jong Choe
No 180, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank
Abstract:
For 15 years the metals market has been characterized by slow growth - in some cases, even decline - in consumption. To test the proposition that structural changes in demand were the main cause of the slowdown, the author - drawing on U.S. data - uses an extended metals demand model that recognizes energy, labor, capital, and other materials as major inputs. The traditional model explains metals consumption in terms only of output and the prices of metal and its substitutes. It is inadequate to address the issue of structural change because it ignores other factors of production, such as energy, which have experienced dramatic changes. With the extended model, the null hypothesis of no structural change cannot be rejected for most metals. With the conventional model, the null hypothesis of no structural change is strongly rejected. Results with the extended model show that the downturn can be explained mostly by changes in the input variables, particularly such nonmetal inputs as capital and energy, which are much more important cost items than metals and have undergone drastic cost changes over the period.
Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Montreal Protocol; Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy); Primary Metals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1989-04-30
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
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