Market disequilibria and inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000

Thilak Ranaweera

No 3144, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: The author develops, and applies a macroeconomic framework to ascertain the influence of domestic disequilibria, and external shocks on inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. Using quarterly data for the period 1994:01 to 2000:03, he estimates several"long-run"relationships for the goods, money, and foreign exchange markets of Uzbekistan, which are characterized by multiple exchange rates, import restrictions, and other domestic administrative controls. The empirical estimates, which use error correction mechanisms for different markets, show that domestic monetary, and output developments, and changes in the official exchange rate, compared with the parallel market rate, have had a significant influence on the short-run behavior of the foreign exchange market in Uzbekistan. Furthermore, disequilibria in the product, and money markets are the major forces driving short-run inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan. It should be noted that the study has been constrained by both the quantity, and the quality of quarterly data available for the Uzbekistan economy.

Keywords: Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Markets and Market Access; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Stabilization; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Environmental Economics&Policies; Markets and Market Access (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-10-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cwa, nep-ifn, nep-mac and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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