Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?
Adeline Delavande (),
Xavier Gine () and
David McKenzie ()
No 5458, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.
Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Information Security&Privacy; Markets and Market Access; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Crops&Crop Management Systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSC ... ered/PDF/WPS5458.pdf (application/pdf)
Journal Article: Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5458
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Roula I. Yazigi ().