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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?

Adeline Delavande (), Xavier Gine () and David McKenzie ()

No 5458, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Information Security&Privacy; Markets and Market Access; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Crops&Crop Management Systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
Date: 2010-10-01
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Journal Article: Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? (2011)
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