Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?

Adeline Delavande, Xavier Gine and David McKenzie

No 5458, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Information Security&Privacy; Markets and Market Access; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Crops&Crop Management Systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSC ... ered/PDF/WPS5458.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5458

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Roula I. Yazigi ().