Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?
Adeline Delavande (),
Xavier Gine and
No 5458, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.
Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Information Security&Privacy; Markets and Market Access; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Crops&Crop Management Systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Journal Article: Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? (2011)
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