Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: a practical approach for policy makers

Daniel Buncic and Martin Melecký

No 5936, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.

Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform; Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research; Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-rmg and nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers (2013)
Working Paper: Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers (2011)
Working Paper: Macroprudential Stress Testing of Credit Risk: A Practical Approach for Policy Makers (2011)
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