Managing (fiscally) resource price volatility: exploring policy options for the Democratic Republic of Congo

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

No 7837, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: How should resource-dependent countries respond (fiscally) to resource price volatility? This paper studies what determines revenue allocation between a"spend today"strategy and a"save now-spend tomorrow"approach in the context of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It uses a three-sector model in which public infrastructure investment has tangible benefits for private production and investment while it is also subject to absorption constraints. The paper calibrates the optimal allocation rule between spending today and asset accumulation, by minimizing a social loss function defined in terms of household welfare (measured by consumption volatility) and macroeconomic volatility (measured in terms of fiscal volatility). Sensitivity analysis is also conducted with respect to various key parameters, including the efficiency of public investment. The results indicate that, if properly managed, sovereign fund could contribute significantly to macroeconomic stability in the DRC.

Date: 2016-09-27
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