Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution: Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies
Fabian Mendez Ramos
No 8841, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank
This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to increase by 2030 in resource-output oriented countries and economies with low rates of output per capita growth. Countries with high growth rates of output are expected to achieve poverty levels below 3 percent by 2030. Global and country aggregations show a decrease in income inequality by 2030; though, significant downside risks could increase wealth inequality in high- and low-output growth economies by 2030. Substantial uncertainty, as measured by the variability of the simulated outcomes, exists on shared prosperity gaps across the studied country typologies.
Keywords: Inequality; Poverty Reduction Strategies; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Growth; Commodity Risk Management; Global Environment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8841
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