Exploring the Growth Effects of COVID-19 across Developing Countries

Cesar Calderon and Megumi Kubota

No 9889, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper investigates the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on economic growth across developing countries. It documents the evolution and co-movement of COVID-19 infections with government responses (including health containment measures) across developing countries. It then estimates the impact of the different channels of transmission of COVID-19 on economic growth—thus, identifying factors that contribute to the economic resilience of countries during the pandemic shocks. The findings show that the pandemic’s impact on the decline in growth was substantive across the different developing country groups—although at different rates. The estimates show that a deeper downturn in economic activity due to the pandemic can be averted in countries with higher levels of human capital, well-targeted containment measures, and improved global health security. Diversifying trade patterns (across products and markets) is also crucial, and so is strengthening intraregional trade, as higher commerce across borders within the different developing regions may help secure the supply chains of essential goods in times of crisis—and particularly during pandemics. Finally, having fiscal space and a less risky public debt profile can make these economies more resilient against crisis.

Keywords: Health Care Services Industry; International Trade and Trade Rules; Economic Growth; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory & Research; Financial Sector Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12-20
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/51111164 ... loping-Countries.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9889

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Roula I. Yazigi (ryazigi@worldbank.org).