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A Composite Leading Indicator of Tunisian Inflation

Mohamed Daly Sfia ()

No wp980, William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series from William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan

Abstract: This paper investigates the possibility of constructing a composite leading indicator (CLI) of Tunisian inflation. For doing so, partial information about future inflation rate provided by a number of basic series is analyzed first. Based on the correlation analysis, a few of these basic series are chosen for construction of composite indicator. Empirical results show that the deviation from long‐term trend of two monetary aggregates (M1 and M3), short‐term interest rate (TMM), real effective exchange rate and crude petroleum production, are important leading indicators for inflation rate in Tunisia. Accordingly, based on monthly data on these basic series, one composite indicator is constructed and its performance is assessed by using turning point analysis, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions. The results indicate that our composite indicator is useful in anticipating changes in inflation rates in Tunisia.

Keywords: Tunisia; Inflation; Leading indicators; Composite index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: pages
Date: 2010-03-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wdi:papers:2010-980

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