New Evidence of Anti-Herding of Oil-Price Forecasters

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke and Georg Stadtmann

No 10-04, WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group from WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management

Abstract: We used the oil-price forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters published by the European Central Bank to analyze whether oil-price forecasters herd or anti-herd. Oil-price forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Based on a new empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80: 657-675, 2006), we found strong evidence of anti-herding among oil-price forecasters.

Keywords: Oil price; Forecasting; Herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 D84 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2010-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

Published Energy Economics 32(6), 2010, 1456-1459

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Journal Article: New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters (2010)
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