Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises

Jan-Christoph Rülke, Maria Silgoner and Julia Wörz ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Julia Maria Woerz ()

No 12-03, WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group from WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management

Abstract: Using a large international data set we analyze whether business cycle forecasters tend to herd or anti-herd. Applying different measures of economic crises, we distinguish between normal economic circumstances and times of crises. We find evidence for anti-herding behavior for most industrial economies, i.e. forecasters deliberately stick out their neck with extreme forecasts for strategic reasons. For a set of emerging market economies, by contrast, we find evidence for herding behavior. We relate this finding to the high incidence of economic and financial crises in these countries. A test for herding behavior during economic crises confirms that forecasters tend to herd in times of high forecast uncertainty.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Forecasting; Economic Crises; (Anti-)Herding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2012-09
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 32, Issue 1, January–March 2016, Pages 23–33

Downloads: (external link)
https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-311 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:whu:wpaper:12-03

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group from WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Rainer Michael Rilke ().