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Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic ()
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Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw,
Hermine Vidovic: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw,

No Autumn2019, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Much of CESEE has so far weathered the slowdown in the global economy well, but signs of contagion are starting to emerge. Global economic growth is at its weakest level since the 2008-09 crisis, and there is no way that the region will be able to avoid this, given its high degree of reliance on exports and integration with Germany. Although the peak years are over, we expect a soft landing rather than an outright collapse for CESEE. Domestic demand will remain resilient, helped by strong wage growth, robust public investment, loose fiscal policy and plentiful credit. Downside risks to our projections are significant, and include a smaller post-Brexit EU budget, the fallout from global trade tensions, the impact of political developments in CESEE on institutions, and potential instability emanating from the financial sector.

Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; new EU Member States; CIS; Russia; Ukraine; Romania; Czech Republic; Hungary; Turkey; Serbia; convergence; business cycle; overheating; external risks; trade war; EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; employment; wage growth; migration; inflation; central banks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E31 E32 F15 F21 F22 F32 F51 G21 H60 J20 J30 J61 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 146 pages including 39 Tables and 50 Figures
Date: 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-mac and nep-tra
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