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No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large

Vasily Astrov (), Alexandra Bykova (), Rumen Dobrinsky (), Richard Grieveson (), Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Philipp Heimberger (), Gabor Hunya (), Branimir Jovanovic (), Niko Korpar (), Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Bernd Christoph Ströhm
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Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw,

No Autumn2020, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Most of CESEE withstood the first wave of the pandemic better than Western Europe. However, the medium-term outlook is hugely uncertain. After an estimated contraction of 4.5% this year, the region should grow by 3.1% in 2021 and by 3.3% in 2022, with risks clearly on the downside. Aside from the potential for further lockdowns, the pandemic will leave lasting legacies in the form of depressed demand for many services, requiring significant further government support.

Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; China; Japan; US; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; Next Generation EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; digitalisation; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; short-time work schemes; exchange rates; monetary policy; fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 151 pages including 37 Tables, 46 Figures and 1 Box
Date: 2020-11
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