Bracing for the Winter

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Selena Duraković (), Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Bernhard Moshammer, Beate Muck, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanovic, Zuzana Zavarska and Adam Żurawski
Additional contact information
Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No Autumn2022, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Economic growth in CESEE in the first half of 2022 was better than expected, and our growth forecasts for this year have been mostly revised upwards. However, global economic conditions are increasingly gloomy, and the worst is yet to come. Inflation is eroding real incomes, consumer confidence is evaporating, business sentiment is deteriorating, interest rates are soaring, and the fiscal space is shrinking. The war in Ukraine will most probably continue at least through 2023, with virtually no scope for a peace agreement. And on top of all that, there is the energy crunch. The CESEE region will probably grow only by 0.3% next year, close to the 0.2% growth that we assume for the euro area.

Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; EU; euro area; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; COVID; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; Russia sanctions; commodity prices; inflation; price controls; trade disruptions; Ukrainian refugees; energy crisis; gas; electricity; monetary policy; fiscal policy; impact on Austria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 172 pages including 33 Tables and 62 Figures
Date: 2022-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-ene
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