CESEE in 2027: Resilient growth in a more dangerous world

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković (), Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Biljana Jovanovikj, Jakub Komárek (), Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara (), Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Emilė Petravičiūtė, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
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Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html
Jakub Komárek: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/jakub-komarek-s-2473.html

No Autumn2026, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in European industry, the euro area faces a difficult outlook, with renewed inflationary pressures, high interest rates and mounting fiscal challenges expected to constrain growth in 2027. Against this backdrop, most economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) remain resilient and continue to outperform Western Europe, although differences between countries are widening. The region's traditional growth model, based on cheap labour, foreign investment and German industrial demand, is giving way to one increasingly driven by domestic demand, automation and investment in defence, energy and higher-value industries, creating new opportunities alongside significant geopolitical and economic risks.

Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; EU; business cycle; economic sentiment; euro area; convergence; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; commodity prices; inflation; price controls; trade disruptions; renewable energy; gas; electricity; monetary policy; fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 142 pages including 29 Tables and 46 Figures
Date: 2026-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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