External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarska and Adam Żurawski
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Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html

No October2024, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2025-2026, as lower inflation and interest rates boost real incomes and consumer spending. Investment should also strengthen as interest rates fall, new foreign investment arrives, and EU funds continue to be drawn down. However, the deepening crisis in German industry will continue to weigh on the export-oriented industry of CESEE. The region faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, and higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East.

Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; EU; euro area; convergence; business cycle; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; Russia sanctions; commodity prices; inflation; price controls; trade disruptions; Ukrainian refugees; energy crisis; gas; electricity; monetary policy; fiscal policy; impact on Austria; near-shoring; automotive industry; droughts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 158 pages including 31 Tables, 57 Figures and 3 Boxes
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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