Darkest before the dawn?

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Selena Duraković (), Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
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Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No Spring2021, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Currently, CESEE is in the grip of a strong wave of the pandemic, which has pushed health systems to breaking point and necessitated a new series of economically damaging lockdowns. However, the public health backdrop should improve by late Spring, as stringency measures and increased vaccine rollout allow economies to gradually re-open. CESEE should grow by 3.8% on aggregate in 2021, with most countries regaining their pre-pandemic output levels by the end of the year. Once the acute phase of the crisis passes, attention will return to existing challenges, including demographic decline, automation, digitalisation, institutional independence and the fallout from geopolitical tensions.

Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; China; Japan; US; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; Next Generation EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; digitalisation; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; short-time work schemes; exchange rates; monetary policy; fiscal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 157 pages including 29 Tables, 62 Figures and 2 Boxes
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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