The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky (), Selena Duraković (), Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarska and Adam Żurawski
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Rumen Dobrinsky: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/rumen-dobrinsky-s-84.html
Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No Spring2024, wiiw Forecast Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Economic growth will strengthen in most countries of CESEE in 2024, as falling inflation boosts real incomes and consumer spending. The outlook for investment is more mixed, while the external sector in CESEE is still waiting for a recovery in German industry. Although the medium-term outlook is reasonably positive, CESEE faces significant downside risks to growth, including a potential victory for Donald Trump in the next US election, higher energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East, a delayed German recovery, and financial instability caused by high real interest rates.

Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; EU; business cycle; economic sentiment; euro area; convergence; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; commodity prices; inflation; price controls; trade disruptions; renewable energy; gas; electricity; monetary policy; fiscal policy; impact on Austria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E22 E24 E27 E31 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 F51 H56 H60 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 Q42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 156 pages including 29 Tables and 50 Figures
Date: 2024-04
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