Monthly Report No. 2/2019

Andrei V. Belyi, Peter Havlik, Artem Kochnev and Ilya Voskoboynikov

No 2019-02, wiiw Monthly Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Chart of the month The Russian economy and oil prices by Peter Havlik Opinion corner Russia’s new social contract in light of the oil taxation reforms by Andrei V. Belyi The fiscal rule and the foreign exchange market in Russia Stepping in the same river twice? by Artem Kochnev Last month the Central Bank of Russia announced its return to the foreign exchange market, according to the fiscal rule implemented in 2017. This note finds that the previous round of the currency interventions by the Bank of Russia was effective in stabilising exchange rate movements by counterbalancing the effects of the oil price changes on the Russian currency. Global slowdown and the Russian economy by Ilya B. Voskoboynikov The article reviews long-run sources of Russian economic growth and demonstrates that the stagnation of the Russian economy in the past decade can be considered in the context of the global productivity slowdown. Conventional industry growth accounting shows that in contrast to the transformational recession before 1998, the recent stagnation of 2008-2014 is primarily the outcome of a slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) growth and a deterioration in the allocation of labour, rather than bottlenecks in capital inputs. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe

Keywords: oil price; balance of payments; oil taxation; social contract; ‘energy superpower’ concept; fiscal rule; foreign exchange market; growth accounting; total factor productivity; structural change; capital intensity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages including 3 Tables and 30 Figures
Date: 2019-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-ene and nep-tra
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