Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković (), Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiß, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara (), Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
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Selena Duraković: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw, https://wiiw.ac.at/selena-durakovic-s-1658.html

No 2026-01, wiiw Monthly Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Winter Forecast Update All eyes on investment as geopolitical pressures mount Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2026-28 The Winter 2026 economic outlook for Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) remains relatively resilient despite an increasingly turbulent global and geopolitical environment. Growth in the region continues to outperform Western Europe, but the underlying growth model is changing as the boost from rapid real wage gains fades and private consumption slows. Looking ahead, investment will play a more decisive role in sustaining growth, supported by EU-funded public investment, defence-related spending and, where conditions allow, easing monetary policy. At the same time, fiscal consolidation is set to intensify in several countries, constraining public demand. Heightened geopolitical risks, weak external demand and trade fragmentation remain key challenges, while the medium-term outlook will hinge on the region’s ability to attract productivity-enhancing investment and to navigate the economic implications of the war in Ukraine and shifting EU policy priorities.

Keywords: CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; economic growth; inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; GDP; wages; fiscal balance; policy rate; political risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E21 E23 E24 E31 E5 E62 H60 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures
Date: 2026-01
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