Impact of Croatian EU Accession on Regional Trade Patterns

Mario Holzner

No 10, wiiw Policy Notes from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Summary This report aims to analyse the regional trade effects of Croatia’s accession to the EU and simultaneous exit from the CEFTA agreement on 1st July 2013. The Global Simulation Model (GSIM) as proposed by Francois and Hall (2003) is being applied. As the change in Croatian tariff protection is rather small, price and output changes for most CEFTA countries are expected to be mostly negligible. Only for Croatia the simulation suggests that overall consumer prices might fall by as much as 0.39% and real output by 0.41%, in the short run. However, it can be expected that EU support funds will offset that loss many times over. The share of Croatian exports to the EU is expected to increase by 2.2 percentage points, while the share of exports to the CEFTA countries and to the rest of the world is expected to drop by 0.7 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.

Keywords: trade policy simulation; Croatia; EU accession; CEFTA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F17 P33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages including 3 Tables and 4 Figures
Date: 2013-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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