Does Trade Drive Global Growth?

Leon Podkaminer

No 386, wiiw Research Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw

Abstract: Conventional econometric analysis using VEC suggests that there is a long-term relationship between nominal world GDP and nominal world exports. The analysis cannot say anything about the causal relationships between the levels of GDP and exports. But it says a lot about the rules governing the short-term adjustments in GDP and exports. When considering such short-term adjustments, GDP plays the first fiddle. Short-term GDP changes have driven short-term changes in world exports, at least over the years 1987-2008. But the short-term changes in world exports did not ‘cause’ positive short-term changes in GDP.

Keywords: world income; world trade; growth; globalization; VEC; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F15 F43 O41 O49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages including 4 Tables and 6 Figures
Date: 2013-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published as wiiw Research Report

Downloads: (external link)
https://wiiw.ac.at/does-trade-drive-global-growth-dlp-2907.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:386

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://wiiw.ac.at

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in wiiw Research Reports from The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Customer service ().